Conner Weigman’s passing yards at home and away
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Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed quarterbacks, Conner Weigman was 56.3 yards over at home and 46.2 yards over away in 2026, 3 games against 4. The plain averages are 251.8 and 261.3, a difference of 9.5. Expected was 24.3 yards higher at home than away.
passing yards a game over expected
at home
+56.3
away
+46.2
050100
A +10.2 difference in passing yards over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
251.8
261.3
200300
A −9.5 difference in passing yards at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | passing yards | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Oregon State | W | 305 | 187.1 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Southern | W | 120 | — | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | @ Texas Tech | L | 282 | 295.8 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Georgia Southern | W | 239 | 196.4 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs UCF | W | 239 | 283.1 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ Kansas State | W | 242 | 144.3 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs Oklahoma State | W | 343 | 247.8 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ Utah | L | 282 | 223.8 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed quarterbacks in its other 2026 games, plus 9.3 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for quarterbacks that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s quarterbacks’ passing yards in his games, 96%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 102% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Southern has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.