Colton Joseph’s passing yards at home and away
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Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed quarterbacks, Colton Joseph was 42.0 yards under at home and 27.0 yards under away in 2026, 3 games against 3. The plain averages are 184.5 and 130.3, a difference of 54.2. Expected was 73.0 yards higher at home than away. Both night games were at home. Both nonconference games were at home.
3 games away is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
passing yards a game over expected
at home
−42.0
away
−27.0
-1000100
A −15.0 difference in passing yards over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
184.5
130.3
100200300
A +54.2 difference in passing yards at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | passing yards | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 6, 2026 | vs Notre Dame (neutral) | L | 217 | 132.2 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vsWWestern Illinois | W | 173 | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Eastern Michigan | W | 362 | 250.0 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Penn State | W | 235 | 112.8 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Michigan State | W | 145 | 207.9 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ UCLA | L | 66 | 164.2 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs USC | W | 58 | 233.1 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @ Iowa | L | 90 | 195.0 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed quarterbacks in its other 2026 games, plus 9.3 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for quarterbacks that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s quarterbacks’ passing yards in his games, 94%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 102% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Western Illinois has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.