Caleb Hawkins’ rushing yards at home and away
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Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed running backs, Caleb Hawkins was 21.6 yards over at home and 67.6 yards over away in 2026, 3 games against 4. The plain averages are 96.3 and 130.3, a difference of 34.0.
rushing yards a game over expected
at home
+21.6
away
+67.6
050100
A −46.0 difference in rushing yards over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
96.3
130.3
100150
A −34.0 difference in rushing yards at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | rushing yards | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | @ Tulsa | L | 79 | 55.0 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Oregon | W | 110 | 87.5 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vsMMurray State | W | 72 | — | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ West Virginia | W | 180 | 87.4 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs UCF | W | 83 | 75.9 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ Houston | L | 68 | 43.7 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs Colorado | W | 120 | 84.8 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @ Iowa State | L | 194 | 64.4 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed running backs in its other 2026 games, plus 10.3 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for running backs that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s running backs’ rushing yards in his games, 67%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 101% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Murray State has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.