Cale Hellums’ passing yards at home and away
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Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed quarterbacks, Cale Hellums was 152.6 yards under at home and 111.2 yards under away in 2026, 3 games against 4. The plain averages are 42.8 and 72.8, a difference of 30.0. Both night games were away.
passing yards a game over expected
at home
−152.6
away
−111.2
-200-1000
A −41.3 difference in passing yards over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
42.8
72.8
50100150
A −30.0 difference in passing yards at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | passing yards | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | vsBBryant | W | 59 | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs South Florida | L | 91 | 151.9 | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | @ Temple | W | 36 | 208.1 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ Louisiana Tech | L | 151 | 182.6 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs Tulane | W | 19 | 198.0 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs Florida Atlantic | W | 2 | 219.8 | |
| Oct 23, 2026 | @ Tulsa | W | 64 | 178.6 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @ Memphis | L | 40 | 166.7 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed quarterbacks in its other 2026 games, plus 9.3 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for quarterbacks that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s quarterbacks’ passing yards in his games, 81%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 102% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Bryant has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.