Caden Durham’s rushing yards at home and away
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Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed running backs, Caden Durham was 4.5 yards under at home and 15.3 yards over away in 2026, 2 games against 1. The plain averages are 4.7 and 22.0, a difference of 17.3. All 3 night games were at home. All 3 nonconference games were at home. Both first-half games were at home.
One game away is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
rushing yards a game over expected
at home
−4.5
away
+15.3
010
plain
4.7
22.0
01020
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | rushing yards | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Clemson | W | 3 | 5.2 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Louisiana Tech | W | -2 | 4.8 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs McNeese | W | 13 | — | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ Auburn | W | 22 | 6.7 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed running backs in its other 2026 games, plus 10.2 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for running backs that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s running backs’ rushing yards in his games, 5%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 101% of the difference the model predicts.
- McNeese has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.