Caden Chittenden’s field goals at home and away
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Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed kickers, Caden Chittenden was 0.2 field goals under at home and 0.1 field goals under away in 2026, 6 games against 3. The plain averages are 1.0 and 1.0, a difference of 0.0. Expected was 0.1 field goals higher at home than away. Both ranked opponents were at home. All 3 nonconference games were at home.
3 games away is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
field goals a game over expected
at home
−0.2
away
−0.1
-10
A −0.1 difference in field goals over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
1.0
1.0
00.511.52
A 0.0 difference in field goals at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | field goals | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 29, 2026 | vs San Jose State | W | 0 | 1.2 | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | vs Fresno State | W | 0 | 1.8 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Louisiana | W | 0 | 0.4 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Rutgers | W | 2 | 1.0 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Oregon | L | 2 | 1.7 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Washington | W | 2 | 1.2 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ Penn State | W | 1 | 0.9 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ Wisconsin | L | 0 | 1.5 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs Ohio State | W | 2 | 1.1 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed kickers in its other 2026 games, plus 0.0 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for kickers that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s kickers’ field goals in his games, 100%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 90% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.