Bryson Washington’s rushing yards at night and by day
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Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed running backs, Bryson Washington was 0.6 yards over at night and 8.3 yards under by day in 2026, 2 games against 3. The plain averages are 26.0 and 8.0, a difference of 18.0.
2 games at night is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
rushing yards a game over expected
at night
+0.6
by day
−8.3
-10010
A +8.8 difference in rushing yards over expected at night vs by day is about what you’d expect.
plain
26.0
8.0
10203040
A +18.0 difference in rushing yards at night vs by day is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were at night and it comes up 19 times in 100.
The games
at nightby day
| Side | Date | Game | Result | rushing yards | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Baylor (neutral) | W | 7 | 13.6 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Southern Miss | W | 44 | 29.4 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Florida | L | 8 | 21.4 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Vanderbilt | W | 12 | 20.7 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs LSU | L | 5 | 14.6 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed running backs in its other 2026 games, plus 10.2 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for running backs that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s running backs’ rushing yards in his games, 15%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 101% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.