Braden Atkinson’s passing yards at home and away
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Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed quarterbacks, Braden Atkinson was 133.0 yards over at home and 142.3 yards over away in 2026, 3 games against 4. The plain averages are 375.5 and 363.5, a difference of 12.0. Expected was 35.5 yards higher at home than away.
passing yards a game over expected
at home
+133.0
away
+142.3
050100150
A −9.3 difference in passing yards over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
375.5
363.5
350400
A +12.0 difference in passing yards at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | passing yards | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | @ Houston | L | 376 | 246.8 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Texas Tech | L | 413 | 296.0 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Montana | W | 333 | — | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ UTEP | W | 301 | 194.9 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ Colorado State | W | 404 | 230.8 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs San Diego State | W | 409 | 266.7 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs Washington State | W | 347 | 207.3 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @ Fresno State | L | 373 | 212.1 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed quarterbacks in its other 2026 games, plus 9.3 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for quarterbacks that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s quarterbacks’ passing yards in his games, 97%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 102% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Montana has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.