Blake Craig’s field goals at home and away
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Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed kickers, Blake Craig was 1.6 field goals over at home and 0.1 field goals over away in 2026, 3 games against 4. The plain averages are 2.0 and 1.3, a difference of 0.8.
field goals a game over expected
at home
+1.6
away
+0.1
01
A +1.5 difference in field goals over expected at home vs away is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up 6 times in 100.
plain
2.0
1.3
11.522.53
A +0.8 difference in field goals at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | field goals | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 3, 2026 | vsAArkansas-Pine Bluff | W | 1 | — | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | @ Kansas | W | 1 | 1.1 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Troy | W | 2 | 0.5 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Mississippi State | L | 1 | 1.7 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Florida | W | 3 | 1.1 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs Texas A&M | W | 2 | 0.6 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ Ole Miss | L | 1 | 1.1 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @ Arkansas | W | 2 | 0.7 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed kickers in its other 2026 games, plus 0.0 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for kickers that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s kickers’ field goals in his games, 100%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 90% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Arkansas-Pine Bluff has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.