San Jose State @ Air Force

Sun, Nov 15Falcon Stadium

The line has it Air Force 30, San Jose State 20.Air Force −10.5, total 49.5, as of Nov 8. A line moves until kickoff. The median of the books College Football Data lists, through Streak King.

San Jose State at Air Force: against expected, a game, this season, All games
a game	San Jose State10 games	Air Force9 games
	−6.8	−0.5
	−0.7	−2.8
	−46	+3
	+45	−59
	−1.2	+0.1
	−7.2	−49.2
	−8.5%	+11.0%
	+1.4	−0.6
	−8.2	−17.6
	+0.1	−0.5
	−0.2	−0.3

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game. Lit is among the ten biggest either way. Tap a row for the games.

Analysis

What’s true going in. Each line says how it stood up; you judge.

Air Force

Air Force is 2.0 points a game over the closing line this season, 44th of 136.factrankedits form →

San Jose State

San Jose State is 1.1 points a game over the closing line this season, 56th of 136.factrankedits form →

The series

Air Force leads the series 6–3 since 1996.seriesevery meeting →

If you squint

Air Force has won 8 of its last 10.countits form →
Air Force has covered 7 of its last 10.countits form →
Air Force is 4–2 against the line as a favorite this season.countits form →
Without Evan Medders, Air Force’s carries are 13.4 over expected in 5 games. A +12.3 difference in carries over expected without Evan Medders vs with Evan Medders is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were without Evan Medders and it comes up 10 times in 100.thinwithout him →
In a conference game, Air Force’s rushing yards are 105.7 over expected in 4 games. A +97.4 difference in rushing yards over expected in a conference game vs in a nonconference game is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were in a conference game and it comes up 16 times in 100.thinthe split →
At home, Air Force’s passing yards are 100.5 under expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →
San Jose State is 4–2 against the line as an underdog this season.countits form →
Without Jabari Bates, San Jose State’s rushing yards are 101.9 over expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinwithout him →
Without Luke Weaver, San Jose State’s third-down conversion rate are 14.3% under expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinwithout him →

Every meeting

Date	Where	Score
Nov 8, 2025	at San Jose State	Air Force 26, San Jose State 16
Sep 7, 2024	at Air Force	San Jose State 17, Air Force 7
Sep 22, 2023	at San Jose State	Air Force 45, San Jose State 20
Oct 24, 2020	at San Jose State	San Jose State 17, Air Force 6
Sep 27, 2019	at Air Force	Air Force 41, San Jose State 24
Nov 19, 2016	at San Jose State	Air Force 41, San Jose State 38
Sep 12, 2015	at Air Force	Air Force 37, San Jose State 16
Oct 25, 1997	at San Jose State	San Jose State 25, Air Force 22
Aug 31, 1996	at Air Force	Air Force 45, San Jose State 0

Method

Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
Touchdowns are passing and rushing. Turnovers are interceptions and fumbles lost. The passer rating is the NCAA’s over the team’s passers that game, and third downs and penalty yards are ESPN’s team box (sportsdataverse, CC BY 4.0). A night game kicked off at 6pm or later at the home team’s clock.
A game with no box score sits out.